Generally speaking, NHL free agents usually spend on contracts and teams overspending on players who should not exceed overspending. Although there are no shortage of bad contracts signed on July 1, there are not many real losers this year for free agents in the next few days, despite one exception.
Most teams have efficient free agency spending
Over the past few years, teams that allocate poor contracts often become overly enthusiastic and distribute multiple. Perhaps it is due to the overall weakness of this year’s free agent class, but most teams that have signed bad contracts will place it in this bad contract.
For example, let’s take the Boston Brown Bear as an example. They signed Tanner Jeannot, worth $3.4 million a year. This is one of the worst contracts signed by the free agency this year, but it’s hard to argue with their other free agents. They signed Michael Eyssimont and Sean Kuraly, signed a cheap two-year contract and spent a year on flyers on Matej Blumel, who has illuminated the AHL with the Texas star over the past two seasons.
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The Jeannot contract could have been the secret to the Brown Bear Disaster, but they had some solid in-depth signings at Eyssimont, Kuraly and Blumel. They may not be stars. They also don’t move the needle significantly, but kuraly and eyssimont are the bottom six forwards of solid, maybe Blumel is more.
Seattle Cleken is another example. They signed Ryan Lindgren to a four-year contract worth $4.5 million, an extreme payment for this in his career. But, besides goalkeeper Matt Murray, he is their only UFA signing this year, who signed a $1 million one-year contract. It was a clear improvement when they signed an eight-year deal with Chandler Stephenson and Brandon Montour compared to last summer. Stephenson is arguably the worst contract in the NHL today.
In fact, most teams are very effective in free agent spending. The New Jersey Devils signed Evgeny Dadonov, who will score 20 goals, 40 points in the season, reaching a year-on-year, $1 million contract, and they managed to get Jake Allen to re-sign a five-year contract for just $1.8 million.
Elsewhere, the Carolina Hurricane spends a lot of money on Nikolaj Ehlers, but I’m not sure anyone would argue that his six-year contract worth $8.5 million is a burden. The St. Louis Blues needed help in the middle and signed to Pissus Sut and Nick Bijostad, reaching a two-year deal that rose by $4 million and $1.75 million. Toronto’s maple leaves have John Tavares sign a hat that dropped below $5 million, as are the Dallas and Matt Duchene stars. They are one of some of the best contracts signed this summer.
Detroit Red Wings general manager Steve Yzerman has had trouble in free agents in recent years, but this summer he has taken a very different approach. The Red Wings signed Jacob Bernard-Docker and James van Riemsdyk for a one-year cheap deal and signed Mason Appleton as a two-year contract worth $2.9 million a year.
The Anaheim Ducks look typical in the wild spending craze of free agents, but their only signing is Mikael Granlund, who signed a three-year contract with a $7 million hat. Is that overpayment? Maybe some, but the duck has a little boat hat room on July 1 (and still does). They have the ability to sign Granlund to sign a $7 million hat, while the three-year period is far from being a heavy hit.
Free agents have obvious winners and losers in most offseasons. While some teams perform better than others, it is hard to say there are many real losers. Given how weak the free agent class is, this may be due to insufficient demand, but most teams are unscathed, despite one exception.
The king cheated on the bag
Ah, King of Los Angeles. They are a bit of a crossroads as an organization. They have successfully become playoff contenders from the reconstruction, but they can’t surpass the Edmonton Oilers in the playoffs, losing four straight times to them in the first round. So they hired former oiler general manager Ken Holland to take over Rob Blake.
The Netherlands didn’t waste any time reprocessing the Kings’ squad, but I can’t say he made many progress. It first traded a promising top four defensive players at Jordan Spence, then replaced him with Cody Ceci, who signed a four-year contract worth $4.5 million. CECI will be good as a third defender, but he will likely play a higher score in the roster, although the top four characters should belong to Brandt Clarke.
Next, the Kings signed a three-year contract worth $4 million for Brian Dumoulin. Dumoulin was great for the Devil after the trade deadline and I gave him a better chance of success than Ceci, but the left side of Dumoulin and Joel Edmundson could be problematic for the King’s blue line. The Netherlands also signed forward Joel Armia for a two-year deal with goalkeeper Anton Forsberg, while Corey Perry signed a one-year contract to limit his free agency spending frenzy.
Based on the victory of the replacement (war) above, the Kings lost three wins last season on the skating team (Spence, Vladislav Gavrikov and Jeannot), adding only 0.2 wins (Ceci, Armia, Dumoulin and Perry). Fosberg should have upgraded David Rittich as a backup for Darcy Kuemper, but the Kings team looks 5-6 points worse than a 5-6-point run a season ago, depending on the free agent situation.
The Western Conference playoff cutoff was 96 points last season, so the Kings could be in a more volatile position in the next season’s playoff game, especially in teams like the Utah Mammoth and Ducks, perhaps the Ducks are ready to jump forward and push the playoff spot.
2025 free agents may be one-time
While most teams have raised the roster in free agents, or at least not making them worse, I wouldn’t expect this trend to continue to increase the salary cap to $115 million in the coming years. Next year may change with UFA and RFA courses that look absolutely loaded, so don’t stand out effortlessly for most teams this year.
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