This week’s mailbags are in many ways Rafael Devers Trade, the remaining questions to be answered in Boston, no trade terms, Brave Shortstop Choice, Pete AlonsoNext contract, Ryan HelsleyStruggle and so on.
Kevin asked:
What do you personally think about the giant industry? I think Boston has made a better deal.
John asked:
Seeing many speeches from fans and media shows that Devers contracts age, but I did some digging into contract trackers. Between 2015 and 2020, there were 12 AAV contracts, 30 Mil respectively. Finish. There are 5 in the year this year alone, including 50. So I think given the way the salary is upgraded to 300,000 at the end of the contract. Maybe it won’t be that big?
Danny asked:
Will the Devers HR statistics suffer from playing games under the current name of SF?
My initial reaction was to favor the trade aspect of the Giants. They added a 28-year-old top ten hitter to baseball, which should be 3-4 wars a year for the foreseeable future. The giant abandoned it Jordan Hicks‘The contract in the process.
Giants may feel pain from moving Kyle Harrison and James Tibbs iii, but may not be in the short term. The balance of the deal is very much related to Harrison, who is only 23 years old and retains second place. If the Red Sox keeps Harrison in a minor for a few weeks, I guess that’s the plan. Harrison has his own pivotality in at least one Major League Baseball season.
TIBB is considered a 50-year prospect; as a corner outfield regular, he will have to play a lot. Jose Bello are wildcard prospects that move regularly.
I’ve seen multiple anonymous executives suggest Devers’ contract is underwater, which means he’s worth much less than what he owes. You can look at this with strict dollar awareness of every war/aging curve, insert 2025 4-man war players who will start to decline in 2026 or 27 and will be paid in 2033 (36 years old). War doesn’t like such a player, especially if he’s DH, I can see him in this way priced under 250mm worth.
It means Devers owe 253mm at the time of trading, plus the 2mm distribution bonus paid by Giants. We can also say that the Hicks should be worth about 8 mm per year. Given that his contract pays 12mm per year by 2027, the Giants saved about 10mm by uninstalling Hicks’ contract. In the Devers’ extension, we’ll say it’s like the Giant paying about 225mm of Devers for the next 8.5 years.
If Devers were declared free agent on June 15, would he be over 225mm?
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