Let’s analyze Shohei Ohtani returns to the mound with incredible details

Shohei Ohtani started the major league for the first time with the Dodgers Monday night in Los Angeles. This will be a disastrous sentence for any other starter who signed before the 2024 season. Of course Ohtani became a franchise member of the 50/50 club, won the National League MVP and then helped his team win the World Series. But he came to the Dodgers to play not only as DH, but last night was a key step in the process, his first game as he recovered from elbow surgery in 2023.

I looked at every tone of Ohtani’s outing to compile the report. Obviously, these are observations from data analysts, not scouts. I’ve supplemented them with the Statcast and pitch model data generated overnight. I’m not the type that ignores numbers, but actually saying that 28 tones are not enough for real samples, so the data is more supportive than the primary. I will start with my first impression, walk through the four pitch types of Ohtani and share some general conclusions.

First impression
Ohtani has provided me with rusty high leverage reliefist resonance from the start. He opened the 98 mph game, tilted the fastball, and nine or four of his top 10 pitchers were cross-shoes. He seemed dissatisfied with his fastball order, pulled several men to the side of his gloves and picked up his sweeping volume. He ended up throwing more sweepers than anything else, though in part because he splits the fastball into two varieties. After I faced the first batsman and showed the mechanic in my eyes, he worked out, which was the same as his pre-injury delivery. Still, he wasn’t able to figure out his command momentum, and his fastball wasn’t the only court where he kept pulling out his sweater. Check out the chart:

That said, we can still get to know his mix (even if a lot of his courts end up in the left-handed batsman box) and see if Ohtani has changed anything overall in his game since the last pitch.

Sweeper
Counting: 10
Velo: 84-88 mph, top with 89
Average exercise: +6.1 inches horizontal, +2.9 inches vertical

Regardless of whether you slice it, Ohtani’s sweeper is his best course in 2023, and my money, layoffs don’t look bad or even better. This is a real sweeper with plus level rest. Now what Arsenal has to say to Ohtani, who is finally authoritative, but he has added two to three drops of water to his cleaner since 2023 and hasn’t sacrificed much bite for it. Manny Machado manages to grab a bat in this inning, but you can see Velo and the Sport:

This is a good case, and PitchingBot is consistent with my assessment, bringing Ohtani’s Slider to 77 in a 20-80 reconnaissance range. The same goes for Fuct+, giving it 143 (100 is the average), higher than any season of his career. Well, yes, I can play. However, despite the high point, Ohtani’s sweeping locations are inconsistent. He hung up a few on Machado’s first court, especially in the middle. Although he and Will Smith are smart enough to try those bounces or send it is acceptable results, he is too far off on his glove aspect, even though he and Will Smith are smart enough.

Command is a tricky thing, and I didn’t expect to see it from Ohtani in the first game of Ohtani. In fact, he felt better about the court than I expected. Padres made contact with five of the six swings, but three were on poorly located products, while the other two were Machado, wielding his swing outside the strike zone, placing the bats on it.

Four-slit fastball
Counting: 9
Velo: 98-99 mph, at a high of 100
Average exercise: -3.3 inches horizontal, +8.0 inches vertical

Last night, Ohtani’s four-person boat sat above the 90s in a hot pipe, and when he reached for the extra, it was up to 100. Unfortunately, he had little command on it. The top line is great – two swings were performed in nine courts! But, well, here is one of them:

I’m really not sure what Luis Arraez was thinking there, but “if it was a ball, I’d pick up this one” is certainly not part of it. That four hole looks like many of Ohtani’s arenas. He stayed for too long and managed to land two of his nine fours on the strike zone, while the other seven were all away from the edge towards the left-handed batsman’s box. He couldn’t find that the court obviously frustrated him, and as the inning progressed, he used it less often.

Apart from the shaky position, it’s a great court. It has enough life, obviously the speed will not be hurt. In tone model terminology, PitchingBot says it has 63 items, but it’s actually 20 positions, and it’s hard for me to argue about any of them. Stuff + in 98 things (I don’t agree) and 68 positions (of course). After recovery, the order usually takes longer to return, and Ohtani’s recovery is certainly one of the most complex rehabilitation in history, thanks to his being in an elite level while doing so. Finally, here is a quad-empty in the area, so you can see how it looks when it is not at ankle height:

Sedimentation tablet
Counting: 8
Velo: 97-98 mph, drop to 95 at 99
move: -9.1 inches horizontal, +2.9 inches vertical

Ohtani added a sinking tablet at the end of 2022, but it was not used that year or the next. Time will prove that he has incorporated it into his arsenal this year, but in the early days he felt better about it than his four-aerial fastball. He opened the game in a trio to Fernando Tatis Jr., but after that I couldn’t fully track the plan – he threw more heavy films at the two lefties he faced rather than the two right afterwards, which is usually not how you make it.

When the usage is confusing, I think the pitch looks great. Unlike his four crew members, he has a reasonable sense of the position of the two-slit variety. Even though Arraez turned around, I took note of what I was impressed with this pitch:

That’s why you don’t throw the sinking piece to the left-handed; the shape and Arraez’s natural swaying desire is there for Ohtani, swaying. But it’s the result for a unique batsman who is able to keep the ball low and around the plate, much more than his four shoemakers. This is also a heavy sinker, falling three inches above its comparable drop.

Before this year, Ohtani’s sinking film was just an afterthought. He threw it 6% of the time in 2023, that’s his career is high, and he developed that in the end of 2022 and everyone. I’m not sure if the usage will increase as he’s still regaining confidence in the secondary or staying here, but frankly, I think it’s probably his best fastball right now. These models agree that Picthingbot makes it 70 and Quets+A 113, both elite numbers used for settlement tablets. Mixing fastball varieties together based on quantity and habitability, this is the storm, and Ohtani seems to increase his ability to do so during his recovery.

Separator
Counting: 1
Velo: 91 mph
move: -7.8 inches horizontal, +1.0 inches vertical

Nothing to see, guys. Ohtani threw a separator with a count of 0-2 and stabbed it into:

I have to say that even if it doesn’t have a swing, it looks pretty. The initial tracks are a few inches taller, while the Gavin sheets may still be on the swing. But yes, the ball bounces back, and if you’re curious about how he feels about it, Ohtani throws a little bit of annoyance.

I was hesitant, only one visual impression of a pitch, especially a separator, which essentially has a wide range of motion curves. I can say for sure that Ohtani threw it out 91 mph, but I can’t even tell you how noteworthy it is. His separator Velo series in 2023 is 83-95; he has always had the ability to speed it up or slow it down.

Next time at Ohtani I’m looking for more segments or some cutters so we can better understand the state of his all choice. But in an inning breakout, and for the first time in a long time, he returned to a major league mound, I think his approach is reasonable: Bring on the court you trust the most, maybe if you have a good number to look for strikeouts, but mostly stick with bread and butter. I won’t bother with model grades here; again, it’s a pitch.

General Conclusion
Ohtani looks like a good starter to come back from surgery. Whether he’s just amplified in the game, stretching out a little in a short period of time, or adding a lasting speed across the board, it’s an open question, but I guess it’s mostly a mixture of the first two. At the end of the 28th innings, he was obviously tired and directed the last few sinking pieces. As he works longer, I expect his average pitch speed to drop across the board, except for his sweeper. I think he will still hit triple digits with his fastball, but very few.

Apparently, Ottani struggled during the outing. The owner of the body wearing the gloves side suggested to me that he was still getting used to his new delivery and new elbows to the greatest extent. I don’t have arm angle data yet, but even though his movements look very similar to my eyes, he released lower pitches at every pitch this year. After the UCL rebuild, many pitchers dropped the slots slightly, and although Ohtani’s surgery was slightly different, it was not surprising to see him follow the same trend.

Ohtani was angry at the turnover, but otherwise it seemed that she wasn’t working on the mound at all, and I always keep an eye on it when the pitcher was adjusting the pace of the game. He took an awkward step from the mound when he thought he needed to cover the ground first, but that didn’t seem to affect him at all, and he strongly rejected the offer of a coach’s visit.

Overall, I think Ohtani looks great. Commands are difficult to be quick and correct; this takes a lot of time and a lot of tones. Things are more stable and predictive, and Ohtani certainly won’t be missing something. His sweeper bites people. Especially his sinking pieces are great for me. When he got it back he fought 100 and he sometimes flashed good location even if he fought with the order. Nothing proved in a game, but except for the result, I think it was a good one, albeit rusty.