2025 Alternative Killer: Three Base

Today, we turn our attention to some chilly performances in the hot corners. While still focusing on teams that fit the loose definition of competitors (about 10% chance of a .500 record or playoff), and the war so far has been about 0.6 or less wars (which accounts for 1.0 wars throughout the season), I also projected our Depth Charts’ breaks into war predictions for other seasons to get other perspectives. This may indicate that some of these teams will clear the criteria significantly, but even so, I include them here because so far their performance at the position is worth a look.

Cub

The Cubs started the season with 2023 first-round draft pick Matt Shaw. 13 was on our preseason top 100 prospects list as a 55-shot prospect – as their starter at third base, but he struggled the door, hitting just .172/.294/.241 (62 WRC+) from the opening day on April 14 to April 14, and then was selected as Triple-A Iowa. Jon Berti did most of the work in absence, Gage Workman, Vidal Bruján, Nicky Lopez, and even Justin Turner discovered it before recalling Shaw on May 19. The 23-year-old rookie returned hot, but struggled in June in the 27-For-27 Funk that started in July; now, he hits only .198/.276/.280 (61 WRC+), with two home runs, 11 steals and 0.0 wars. Despite his poor performance relative to his expected statistics, including the .350 XSLG, his 83.3 mph exit speed put him in the first percentile, while his fifth hit was 26.8%. Notably, he rode the pine trees in the days of the All-Star game, having one start and two late appearances in the Cubs’ final five games. Manager Craig Counsell called Shaw’s absence in the roster “just a little breath here.”

The Cubs still see Shaw as a long-term solution for third base, but he is currently the weakest link in a team, with its NL Central Leader already ahead of the winemakers. The upgrade makes sense, especially considering that Berti (.219/.272/.240, 48 WRC+) and Bruján (.184/.205/.263, 28 WRC+) are better than Shaw; both the Workers and Lopez are now in other organizations, and the 40-year-old Turner has not played 60 innings in the third season since 2022. Waiting for free agent Eugeniosuárez will be the top third baseman for the Rattlers to decide to push him to the market, and considering that like the Cubs are more suitable for controlling the remainder like Rockies. If the Cubs prioritize defense, then Orioles’ Ramón Urías is a powerful defender at a much less cost.

red

In December 2023, a three-year, $45 million deal by free agent Jeimer Candelario is meaningless, but the injury and Noelvi Marte’s PED suspension provide him a path. He was terrible in 2024 (89 WRC+, -0.3 War) and then in 25 (.113/.198/.213, 10 WRC+, -0.7 War 91 sets), then landed on the injured list with a waist twist in late April. Once he recovers, he is assigned as a mission and then released – more or less the midpoint of the contract. He has since signed a minor league deal with the Yankees. As far as its value goes, he has only 100 pa of 64 wrc+ in Triple-A, so that’s not like the Reds missed on the rebound.

Since Candelario was injured, most of his playing time at the third base went to Santiago Espinal, but he struggled with the tough (.246/.296/.293, 63 WRC+) and only played two goals. Somehow, his 0.9% barrel rate is still higher than the other six players in at least 200 PA. Marte started the season in Triple-A Louisville in 2024, and he was recalled on April 9. Although he played 19 games in 19 games and then lost two months of slope, he hit a high percentage (.284/.337/.547, 138 wrc+), although available, but the batting line was only 108 pa. If he could maintain anywhere at that performance level – even if he fell back on his .257 XBA and .464 XSLG, the Cincinnati problem was resolved. Things are rarely so neat, however, and despite the performance of future contest participants Sal Stewart – who ranked ninth on May’s top prospect list with a 40+ FV, which is on the promotion from Double-A Chattanooga to Louisville fare, the Red still has to make progress outside the organization.

Yankees

The areas needed are more obvious than this. Last winter, the Yankees added former All-Stars Cody Bellinger, Max Fried, Paul Goldschmidt and Devin Williams, but they browsed at third base. They opened with the 40 MANOSWALDO CABRERA, but he suffered an ankle fracture at the end of the season on May 12. .149/.213/.243 (28 wrc+) started at third base in his 43. Prospect Jorbit Vivas (35+ FV) is equally helpless (.149/.245/.255, 45 WRC+), while his 18 starts with six out of six games in Hot Corner. DJ Lemahieu didn’t even feel confident enough about his physical condition to return to third base before being released last week, while Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s latest inmate at the position was shortened by sore shoulders. Lemahieu’s departure allowed him to return to second.

The Yankees have Lopez and Candelario on Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, but none of them have an answer. They are looking for bigger games. Suarez, McMahon and Hayes’ father, Charlie Hayes, played third for the Yankees in the 1990s, and made a foul in the final of the 1996 World Series, both New York’s radar, as did Nolan Arenado. A deal with Cardinal Third Baseman will complicate the $50 million he still owes in 2027, not to mention he had to give up all No-Trade clauses to reach a deal, considering the Cardinals themselves fighting for the playoffs. Even if not Arenado’s choice, General Manager Brian Cashman almost certainly has to find an upgrade.

twin

We are four positions in this year’s Alternative Level Killer series, so to speak, and the twins have touched them. The main culprit here is Royce Lewis, who started the season with a nervous left hamstring on the injured roster. Amid all of this, he hits only .216/.281/.302 (64 wrc+), although his hits have been even more impressive since June 3 when he ended his second no-hit streak. 309/.368/.412 (120 wrc+).

The path forward is likely to be Lewis, not only because he played at the All-Star level for most of last season, but also because one team is expected to have only so many locations to solve for a suburban team. That said, Brooks Lee hit much better at third base (.297/.339/.483, 128 WRC+). His offense struggle in second place was a big reason why the twins were on the list. Between Lee, Willi Castro and the current St. Paul Saint Jose Miranda, the twins have other options, but hopefully things won’t happen.

Winemaker

With Willy Adames leaving through free agents, the brewers chose to move Joey Ortiz from third base to shortstop, but that was not the case. (Spoiler Alert: Tone Tone.) Instead of looking for a new third baseman, Milwaukee left the door with a platoon involving the left-wing Oliver Dunn and Righty Vinny Capra. The program lasted about three weeks, Dunn hit 17 WRC+ with just -0.3 WAR, he was selected as Triple -A Nashville, and Caleb Durbin was summoned to replace him. The 25-year-old Durbin, a 5-foot, 40 fv prospect that Williams traded from the Yankees (Ahem), hit the respectable .261/.348/.363 (107 WRC+), which means he is more productive than the arena at 93 WRC+93 WRC+.

As you might guess, Durbin’s performance is very touch-centric with a 7% walk rate and a 9.2% strikeout rate. He did this somehow in the first percentile in the exit speed (84.8 mph) and hitting hard at a tough pace (24.8%), but he produced 1.4 wars due to the basic percentage and good defense (6 DR, 1 FRV). All the negative contributions of Dunn and Capra obscured the overall mark of the winemakers, who are now working for the White Sox. Doberman may be more suitable for a practical role in the long run, so winemakers can post pats here, but first baseman Rhys Hoskins lost a left-level 2-level left thumb sprain, which widened their demand for powerful bats. Suarez is suitable, not to say that this is a powerful possibility.

Philadelphia

Alec Bohm is no stranger to these lists, but his .281/.327/.395 (101 WRC+) line is a little brighter in the power sector, but he is not a problem, but a total of 1.5 wars, of which 1.4 is a third baseman. On the other hand, Edmundo Sosa and Otto Kemp combined with a -0.8 war in the 18-game start, combining 11 shots of 67 and in third basemen. Most of this happens when Bohm covers first base on the injured right wrist inflammation list. The Phillies soon discovered that keeping Bohm in third place compared to his early career struggles — he became the average fielder for the metrics — and putting Kemp on the starting point better. Of course, make Harper’s job better first. While NL East Long Phillies have some obvious needs (this is another spoiler alert for your kid), consider it as another situation that doesn’t need to be fixed.